Reflections on 2025 and themes shaping 2026

2025 played out differently to many expectations across the Trading landscape. Following strong 2024 fund performance and pre-election market exuberance, hiring activity entered the year on a far quieter footing. What followed was a year defined by volatility, selectivity, and a clear recalibration of how and where firms deploy talent.

Below are the key themes we have observed across the market.

Tariffs and Front Office Hiring

2025 H1 was quieter than expected, and global markets saw real volatility, which led to a markedly conservative approach to hiring across the front office. Outside of very specialised pockets and replacement headcount within investment pods and trading desks, wider hiring activity slowed for the firms that reacted poorly to the irrational markets. On the engineering front well capitalised businesses continued to build, developing their infrastructure to remain robust through ever volatile markets, coping with the scalability and speed needed for the trading desks of tomorrow.

As a result:

• The bar for new talent entering the market increased materially.
• Firms that navigated volatility effectively were the first to re-enter the market with conviction.
• Those that stepped back in aggressively were quick to turn on the hiring taps heading into H2.

Within TradFi, the dominant hiring themes were:

• Vol/Options desks.
• EU Power & Gas Analyst/Trader.
• Continued hiring across Indian Options Desks.
• Crypto MM buildouts.

Commodities – Power, Gas, and Structural Growth

The commodities market has remained highly active, particularly across power and gas. Liquidity continues to deepen, with the Dutch TTF serving as a clear example, following a sharp increase in volumes.

Key drivers include:

• Growing market complexity as grids integrate more renewables.
• Structural growth driven by energy transition and electrification.
• Tier 1 funds and prop shops (proprietary trading firms) expanding analyst and trader headcount across the EU.

Notably, new market entrants with HFT DNA are beginning to establish themselves, bringing advanced analytics, robust infrastructure, and high-quality engineering capability.

AI and ML in Systematic Investing

Ken Griffin’s views on AI in investing have closely mirrored what we have seen across our client base in 2025. In the systematic space, limitations around longer-term forecasting have become increasingly apparent.

Observations from the market:

• Underperformance across some heavily systematic shops and investment pods with deeply embedded AI.
• AI within the buyside is currently being used more effectively in operational contexts, including BAU automation and anomaly detection.
• Continued demand for individuals who can deploy AI and ML skillsets for direct revenue generation. Particularly for reinforcement learning within ML algorithms aimed at improving price-action prediction, and we expect this to accelerate into the new year.

Non-Competes and Talent Mobility

Extended non-compete agreements are increasingly being used as a retention tool by hedge funds and prop firms, particularly across EMEA.

Current dynamics include:

• Sit-out periods extending up to 36 months, with a market average of around 12 months
• Reduced ability in buy-side for new hires to contribute to PnL within short timeframes
• Increased hiring from the sell side, where non-competes typically do not exceed three months

Candidates are more frequently resigning without a secured role to interview closer to the end of their sit-out period. Attempts to bypass non-competes have largely been unsuccessful, particularly where individuals are paid during the restriction period. Outcomes remain heavily relationship- and role-dependent. We have seen some positive movement within crypto firms, with non competes less likely to be enforced from TradFi, for those with perhaps a greater appetite for risk.

Diversification as a 2026 Priority

Diversification remains a core focus as firms search for new sources of alpha and scalable AUM.

This has driven:

• Discretionary firms to further systematise strategies and rule-based approaches.
• Stat-arb funds continue to expand into macro.
• Leading HFTs to move beyond pure speed, exploring intraday and even low-frequency horizons.

For candidates, these initiatives offer ownership of new areas and fast career progression.

Crypto – Momentum Returns

The crypto market has expanded significantly in 2025, with approximately 60% more job openings across trading, infrastructure, and compliance as regulation evolves rapidly alongside the industry.

Key trends include:

• Strong PnL generation from long-only funds.
• Market makers expanding amid increased participation across CeFi and DeFi.
• Competition intensifies for top trading and engineering talent from both in and outside of crypto.

With crypto continuing to be a growing reflection of traditional markets, there is an ever present talent crunch, with shops fighting for top traders from larger systematic shops who command increasingly aggressive compensation inclusive of guarantees and sign on bonuses.

Compensation dynamics remain aggressive:

• Guarantees and sign-on bonuses are increasingly common.
• Non-revenue generating tech roles frequently seeing 100%+ guaranteed bonuses.
• Revenue splits varying widely, with the mean sitting around 20%.

While overall performance has been less exceptional across the majority of MM/rop firms than the post-2022 rebound year, appetite is growing among top Traders from MFTHFT seeking higher risk exposure and greater upside under the right leadership and conditions. The crypto buzz is firmly back.

Looking Ahead to 2026

We are very much looking forward to the year ahead and continuing our partnerships with clients and candidates globally. Wishing you all a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2026.